Here's what will decide it: Some kind official Steambox hardware release or VR hardware release. Half Life 2 was used to "force" people to get Steam, and Half Life 3 will, if it's ever created, be used to leverage whatever Valve's next consumer platform/device is.

Personally I think that is unlikely.

Their VR is being released at the end of this year. Unless they have been working on VR HL3 in secret for the last 3 years (!!!) I don't think that is going to be their launch strategy. The technology would not even have been mature enough for them to have a target to design to.

I would put my money on something like Portal. It has mass appeal (e.g. kid friendly), possibilities for really vivid mind-bending effects, simple environments that won't be overwhelming for first-time users, and it can be a short experience that doesn't have to live up to an AAA standard to be successful.

Hey! You called it! -A note from the future

Yeah, all of this is conjecture until the Steambox/VR platform is released and doesn't include HL3, or there is no announcement about it.

Also there was this from Marc Laidlaw

https://i.imgur.com/dTgJ1WZ.png

HL3 as the killer app for Valve's next platform. Intriguing, and makes sense.

People are coming to this conclusion regardless so it doesn't even matter if it's true or not. Valve doesn't even really need to make games anymore given their status as a platform for them. Why go through a huge effort just to make a few chicken-shit millions selling a single game when you have an entire ecosystem to feed off of?

Valve wont make halflife 3 unless they would there was something inherently new about it. Without that je ne sais quoi it would fall on its face no matter how good it is. When faced with unreasonable expections for something you aren't required to do, not doing it seems smart. Look at duke nukem forever as a case study that was shit, but as an audience we become overly critical when our expectations get to high.

DNF is a poor choice, as it was doomed to be shit no matter what. The extended development cycle took it all the way through hype, then mockery, then forgotten. No one bought DNF with the idea that it was going to be good.

Mass Effect 3 was the correct choice for comparison - although the lesson to be learned isn't "if it isn't perfect it will destroy your company", it was "Don't rush the ending, because the people who have invested in the series will play the whole thing." Just a little bit more work on the end of ME3 - if they hadn't made it a choice, but had be the end result of your all your choices throughout the series, there would never have been such a backlash.

"You won't believe this clickbait nonsense shit! SEO experts hate it!"

R.I.P. Half-Life 3, 2007 - 2015.

HL3 is something I could see them releasing as a VR game or something but that would be more about launching VR than HL3.

I'd rather have them make a game that is awesome as half life generally was.

HL3 is something I could see them releasing as a VR game or something but that would be more about launching VR than HL3.

I'd rather have them make a game that is awesome as half life generally was.

HL3 is something I could see them releasing as a VR game or something but that would be more about launching VR than HL3.

I'd rather have them make a game that is awesome as half life generally was.

HL3 is something I could see them releasing as a VR game or something but that would be more about launching VR than HL3.

I'd rather have them make a game that is awesome as half life generally was.

VR is something I could see them releasing as a HL3 game or something but that would be more about launching HL3 than VR .

I'd rather have them make a half life that is awesome as game generally was.

Currently playing XCOM: Enemy Unknown. Or, as I like to think of it, a computerised version of the Firing Squad scene from Monty Python.

Me: How could you miss?
Lt. Sissy Funnypants: He moved.
Me: Shut up! Go and practice!

HL3 isn't happening for the simple reason that Valve is not structured to make it happen. If you've seen the Valve employee handbook that was leaked you know that Valve operates as a "decentralized" company with everyone deciding independently what they want to work on.

That kind of structure works for some things, but it doesn't work for big AAA tent-pole games. The whole Episode 1 & 2 expriment were an attempt to mitigate the effects of long development cycles, but that failed to shorten development times (considering that each game only had 4-5 hours of gameplay).

I doubt that anyone in Valve is even exploring HL3 as a possibility right now. It's not because of fear; there just isn't anyone that is interested in organizing and tying up a team for 5 years on a single project.

Personally, I can't blame them. If the company is making money, and I'm free to experiment with crazy crap like VR and Steam controllers, why the hell would I want to sign up for a 5 year slog?

Possibly to push people to buy that VR technology. That remains to be seen, however.