Nudge theory is based on risk and delay discounting theories from behavior economics. Basically, we've found that humans follow basic algorithmic laws in decision making, but not very logical actors. In other words, we're predictable and we're stupid. Seriously. You can plot it on a curve and accurately predict not only people's decisions, but things like divorce, GPA, relapse, etc. Even how much they like hip hop music.

The concept behind 'nudges' is to use this knowledge of how humans behavior to frame policies in a way that's actually effective. For example, opt-out policies for organ donation rather than opt-in. Most people don't have strong objections to organ donation, but opting in is something most perpetually postpone as its not all that important to their own life and takes effort to change. By putting the effort onto opting out, most people who are comfortable with organ donation donate, and those with strong feelings tend to opt out quickly.

Simply saying "Please wash your hands and cover your mouth" isn't actually in line with nudge theory. And Thaler has always advocated for these to be part of long-term social planning, not part of an acute response to a global emergency.

Sounds like psychohistory.

Update:

The UK Only Realised "In The Last Few Days" That Its Coronavirus Strategy Would "Likely Result In Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths"

Scientists advising the government say an aggressive new approach adopted to attempt to "suppress" the virus may have to be in place for 18 months.

Sorry for the mod (the general situation isn't funny at all), but this sudden awareness is actually rather funny.

Totally appropriate mod. We're staying inside till we figure out what to do with the sore throat and the headaches. It is kind of dense. Are you better? And how will they test you after the quarantine?

I'm doing well, thanks.
Nowadays in northern Italy COVID-19 tests are gold.
If you have symptoms, you simply stay home, self-confined, for fourteen days: in the best scenario, you'll never know if you were positive or just a fucking hypochondriac.
The big problem is in my own city: every physician here will tell you that the real number of cases in Milan is a "grey" one; the official positives are the tip of the iceberg.
Given the incubation period, it's likely that in the next five/ten days we'll find ourselves in a critical situation. Here hospital workers don't test, in order to avoid the forced quarantine and keep on working. But masks and protections are in short supply, and it means more infections inside medical facilities.
Milan is a mid-sized city (1.400.000 citizens), but its metropolitan area is huge, for Italian standards (about 7.400.000 inhabitants).
The vibes these last days are gloomy. Silence, ambulances.

This is such a horrible situation for you, especially considering the dwindling resources.

Because there are no severe symptoms, doctor recommends self-isolation and no test. They were like “epidemiologically it would be interesting, but practically it doesn't change much – avert contact anyway”. Let's just watch the numbers.

About the numbers, I would prefer not to.
In these hours Italy is outmatching China's overall number of COVID-19 victims (I regret old times, when we competed for the moral fatherhood of pasta); half of them are from my region.

In other words, I'm currently writing from the chief town of COVID-19 arsehole of the world.

Pasta was the first thing to disappear off the supermarket shelves here, but given the circumstances I was pretty sure it wasn't Italians coming over here to reclaim their ancestral spaghetti.

Ha! Well, Ischgl has more headlines as super spreader already. Also, thanks for pressing us into isolation: Working from home since Friday, albeit with many exceptions for shopping and family.

You're welcome. It's always a pleasure to insufflate some good old apocalyptic fear into my dearest online community.
(very glad to hear that, really)

Ok: Italy's deaths surpassed China's today.
The amount of Covid-19 positives here in Milan is soaring.

Non va proprio benissimo.

We don't actually know how many people died in China. We only know what the Chinese government tells the media.

You're right, in part; but sadly it's not just a matter of censorship. Even here in Italy the count is just hypothetical. A lot of people — elderly persons in particular — dies at home with no diagnosis, and doesn't increase the Covid-19 death toll.

I'm hearing from Scotland they're now recommending 4 month self-isolation for people over 70! That's really the first serious acknowledgement I've heard for how long this is likely to go on.

I read that there will probably be a dip during the summer, but it'll likely ramp up again in the autumn.

My girlfriend sent me an email

Flowers are carefree
Pandemic has nothing to do with them
But human moods effect their growth

Not intended as a poem, but I thought it was a bit haiku-like.

Wink wink.

Say no more.

Are you insinuating something?

Get in the guillotine. Nudge, nudge.

People dying is both the problem and the solution.

Turns out the answer was right in front of us all along!

Case in point. Guillotine Bait.

+1 StupidCruel

The cruelty is the point.

+1 Sadsightful

I bristle at the term "herd immunity". Why not "group immunity"? Personally, I like "community immunity", but I realize it may sound silly to some. Anyway, stop with the dehumanizing "herd" thing. It's not effective.

because when so much of society can be classified as being part of the so called "bewildered herd"...

i've had a continuous cough for the last 20 years...

Late damp winter leading into spring allergies is a phleghmy mess for me. I clear my throat and people JUMP.