Wednesday, 2 January 2019

SE AVALON Day 11

quote [ Results are in. . . ]

I hope Merlin is ready, I doubt it.




FAILURE


Please, daffyduck, set up the final team of 4. Think carefully, and please let everyone weigh in a bit before you decide.
[SFW] [Mafia] [+3]
[by ooo[......7@2:57amGMT]

Comments

ooo[......7 said @ 2:58am GMT on 2nd Jan [Score:1 Underrated]
Knights, discuss vile treachery here
conception said[1] @ 6:23am GMT on 2nd Jan
Quest 1 - 1 Team Nay Vote
Shift
Daffy
Quest Passed

Quest 2 -
Team
Conception
R1Xhard
endopol

Votes
daffyduck NAY
conception YEA
shiftace NAY
R1xhard YEA
endopol YEA
arrowhen YEA

Results
2 PASS
1FAIL

Quest 3 Team 1
shiftace
conception
Rx1hard
arrowhen

Votes
daffyduck NAY
conceptionYEA
shiftace NAY
R1xhard NAY
endopol NAY
arrowhen YEA


Quest 3 Team 2
Daffyduck
Shitface
R1xhard
Endopol

Votes
daffyduck NAY
conception NAY
shiftace NAY
R1xhard YEA
endopol YEA
arrowhen YEA

Quest 3 team 3
Conception
End
Aw
Shift

Votes:
daffyduck NAY
conception NAY
shiftace YEA
R1xhard YEA
endopol YEA
arrowhen YEA

Results
4 PASS


Quest 4 Team 1
arrowhen
conception
shiftace

Votes
daffyduck NAY
conception YEA
shiftace YEA
R1xhard NAY
endopol YEA
arrowhen YEA

Results
Fail - 1 fail vote
conception said @ 6:24am GMT on 2nd Jan
ooo, can we get a count of the pass/fails for Quest 4? One fail or two?
ooo[......7 said[4] @ 8:25am GMT on 2nd Jan [Score:1 Informative]
Yes, 1 fail.
conception said @ 6:25am GMT on 2nd Jan
So, Daffy, you're either a good guy or a bad guy. Either way, you know what you need to do... I think.

daffyduck said @ 9:35am GMT on 3rd Jan
Well now that arrowhen is claiming that YOU, not R1X, is a baddie, how do you feel about him? Just curious.
conception said @ 4:28pm GMT on 3rd Jan
The only datapoint I see is for the last team. R1 said nay, End said yay and it failed.

So, that's about the only data I see between them.
conception said[2] @ 5:34pm GMT on 3rd Jan
More thoughts:

The ConceptionEndAwShift Pass actually makes me think that end might not be bad....

Highly unlikely that both baddies would vote pass, right? I mean, maybe.

Likely that AW/Shift voted just pass? Sure. Assuming AW is a baddie, then he voted pass and then fail for the following team. And shift and end are goodies.

But leap of faith.
shiftace said @ 4:59pm GMT on 4th Jan
I think it is more likely that both baddies would vote pass on the 1st 2nd and 3rd quest as they can not coordinate in private. If two baddies were on the last quest then I think for sure they would have both voted fail. Following that logic, assuming I am innocent then you must be also. and as you have pointed out early that if you are innocent then duck must also be innocent. I think that is why Arrow put you on the last team instead of him and Endo. Now he must shift his accusations to you instead of R1 in order to continue his attack on Duck.

So from my prospective, the Baddies are Arrow and Endo/R1 and I am leaning more towards Arrow/endo. I think endo's team would have been a fail if it only had one baddie.
conception said[2] @ 10:12pm GMT on 3rd Jan
A more concise version of my other post: So, with the assumption I'm not evil - which I realize is big assumption.

Last quest failed with 1 fail - unless shift or aw are being supremely tricky, one or the other is evil.

Quest 2 failed with 1 vote - so unless R1 and End are being supremely tricky, one or the other is evil.

So, it must be R1 or End. And it must be AW or Shift.

For Q3 - End, AW and Shift were there together. And it passed. What are the chances that both End /and/ AW or Shift both voted to pass. Seem... low?

Chances that AW or Shift would vote to pass seem... higher? With End being innocent.

With that, maybe R1 + AW/Shift is the most likely.

And of the two - on one hand, AW is talkative, but that's not necessarily bad. And Daffyace had one nay vote which could have been the merlin at the beginning, pointing to Shift, or just noise. AW has voted yay for every team - seems fishy. AW also had a strong campaign against R1 which could have been redeeming, but he switched to me which means he's evil or just guessing/covering for himsef - which fits into the voting pass.

My guess would be R1 and AW.

daffyduck said @ 5:12pm GMT on 2nd Jan
I pretty much have my mind set on a team (as a shocking turn of events, I am going to leave arrowhen and endopol out), but I'm willing to wait so that people can have a word in.
shiftace said @ 8:19pm GMT on 2nd Jan
Aaron baddie for sure. I'm not 100 sold on endo being the other baddie. I'll have to think some more when I get home
arrowhen said @ 10:28pm GMT on 2nd Jan
Win or lose, I'd like to congratulate our baddies, daffyduck and conception on a game well played.

Daffy stumbled slightly at the very beginning, defending himself unnecessarily even after voting PASS on the first round to establish credibility, but he recovered very well by immediately pivoting to accusing me and keeping it up for the rest of the game, which was very effective in drawing suspicion away from his teammate.

Conception played a very patient and subtle long game, posting voting summaries to appear helpful while refraining from speculation that could be construed as an attempt at misdirection, voting against daffy's team to avoid the appearance of collusion between them, voting against himself when the timing wasn't in his favor, and generally just biding his time until his team was in the perfect position they're in now -- one FAIL vote away from winning with the baddies getting back to back opportunities to nominate teams.

The only mistake the baddies made was allowing themselves to be drawn in by my feint against R1Xhard.

Sorry, r1x! It was a wild accusation on the flimsiest of pretexts -- "divisive comments aimed at raising the general level of paranoia and suspicion" I think is how I phrased it? That's just a fancy way of saying "random shit-talking." That's not suspicious, that's just what you do. (And we love you for it!)

But as unfounded an accusation as it was, daffy and conception were happy to play along with it. Even before rx1 went on the first failed quest, daffy was going out of his way to agree with my fake accusation against him. Conception even went as far as to say that the team with him and r1x should be voted down -- and then went ahead and voted for it anyway (and we all know how that turned out!)

Their comments and voting patterns for the rest of the game continued to bear out their willingness to use r1x as a scapegoat: daffy voted against every team with r1x on it, trying to play the role of the humble townie voting down the baddies; conception voted for two teams with both himself and r1x and against a team with himself but not r1x because he wanted to put himself in a position to strike while shifting the blame onto someone already under suspicion. He only voted for himself in the last round because rx1 had already served his purpose and he knew it would be safe to strike since the next two chances to name a team would go to the baddies.

Guys, we can still pull this off. All we have to do is make it through the next two nominations keeping our focus on the evidence at hand and not allowing ourselves to be fooled by daffyduck's accusatory bluster and conception's cunning maneuvering. As soon as we get a team without either of them on it, the game is ours!

And if we don't, I honestly won't even mind; the baddies have played hard and smart and if they get the win, it'll be a well-deserved one.
daffyduck said @ 9:45am GMT on 3rd Jan
" As soon as we get a team without either of them on it, the game is ours!

And if we don't, I honestly won't even mind; the baddies have played hard and smart and if they get the win, it'll be a well-deserved one."

I like it when you speak the truth; as a baddie, if you get you or endo on a team, the game is indeed yours. And you have played hard and smart for your win, no denying that. There was some other comment from you in the early stages of the game that I also liked for the same reason: no lying if you look at it from the baddies POV.

Had to check, it was this part: "...that the Merlin can feed us the information we need to win...", e.g. hoping for Merlin to talk enough so that you can pin the knife.
conception said[1] @ 4:29pm GMT on 3rd Jan
I'm not a baddie, so what's your new theory?
daffyduck said @ 6:09pm GMT on 3rd Jan
I think this might be the day when arrowhen has finally blamed everyone else of being a baddie except endopol, who needs to be defended and 'vindicated'. Gee I wonder why...
arrowhen said @ 8:28pm GMT on 3rd Jan
Incorrect. I never directly accused Shiftace either; I only ever mentioned him as a possible suspect alongside you ("daffyace") before eliminating him in favor of you as the more logical suspect.

If using logic to consider whether or not someone is a baddie counts as "blaming", then I also "blamed" endopol, since went through the same process with him; the only difference is that in his case you mentioned his name first.
conception said @ 10:04pm GMT on 3rd Jan
Sure, but since I'm not a baddie, it's either you or Shift.

And you can't be Merlin, since again, I'm not a baddie.

You could be just wrong, but not very useful.

Could be shift - there was still that one nay vote on the first team. But Quest 3 succeeded which makes me think there was only one baddie on that team.

Let's see...

Quest 3 team 3
Conception
End
Aw
Shift

Votes:
daffyduck NAY
conception NAY
shiftace YEA
R1xhard YEA
endopol YEA
arrowhen YEA

So, of those that were going, there is a 66% chance of failure. Either myself or End are baddies. Assuming I'm innocent, because I am, It's either end is a baddie and there were no other baddies, or end is innocent and R1 is the baddie.

There has to be two baddies, so even if Daffy is one of them, I am not the other so one baddie voted for this team. Probably two did? But why the pass?

Later, you and shift were on the team with me and it failed. So, one of you must be the baddie, which means there was definitely at least one baddie on the previous team that voted pass.

So, it has to be you or shift. You have voted for every single team to go, so that leans in your favor.

The fact that there were two baddies on a team means it's probably R1 not End in the end and the baddies might have this locked up.
ooo[......7 said @ 2:58am GMT on 2nd Jan
daffyduck please elect 4 knights for a quest
daffyduck said @ 9:51am GMT on 3rd Jan
Still waiting for R1X and endo to chime in, but I might as well get this done:

daffyduck
conception
shiftace
R1Xhard
ooo[......7 said @ 6:11pm GMT on 5th Jan [Score:3]
Look folks, we gotta wait for endopol.

I know it's hard, and I know it's exciting. Imagine how I feel, I check this shit just about every hour.
endopol said @ 1:14am GMT on 6th Jan
Sorry folks, I've been fighting off a flu, a terrible poison ivy rash, and my in-laws. Thanks for waiting. Chivalry is not dead :)
R1Xhard said @ 10:43am GMT on 3rd Jan
Oh I'd concur, a part from a random mud sling I'm still iffy on Conception.

On a side note for a friend; if a guy was to jerk off into his hand and then catces the "cream" and then proceeds to internally massage that "cream" into a lady, if she get's pregnant would that be called HandMaculate Conception?
conception said[1] @ 4:24pm GMT on 3rd Jan [Score:1 Insightful]
endopol said[1] @ 1:10am GMT on 6th Jan
Failed quests:

1. Conception, Rx, me

2. Conception, aw, shift

Possible teams of baddies:
{conception} x {daffy, *me, *Rx, *shift}
{Rx, me} x {aw, shift}


* Denotes a pairing that would require a lucky split.

Now, assuming that no baddie will attempt a lucky split unless they had to (e.g. it's the fourth quest and there is only one fail), and that all other motives are opaque (including voting--this gives them less credit than they are due, but otherwise I can't say anything about this) only {conception} x {aw, shift} might have tried to pull this off. In which case, there is a 0.5 chance of the current situation. Up to scale, the likelihood of each pair:

Conception, me: 0
Conception, daffy: 1
Conception, Rx: 0
Conception, shift: 0.5
Conception, Aw: 0.5
Me, daffy: 0
Me, Rx: 0
Me, shift: 1
Me, Aw: 1
Daffy, Rx: 0
Daffy, shift: 0
Daffy, aw: 0
Rx, shift: 1
Rx, aw: 1
Shift, aw: 0

Summing over all pairs gives (naive) marginal baddiehood likelihoods

Conception: 2
Daffy: 1
Me: 2
Rx: 2
Shift: 2.5
Aw: 2.5

(Up to scale)

I'd recommend leaving Aw and shift out of the last quest.
daffyduck said @ 7:50pm GMT on 6th Jan
Thanks for the effort, but I don't really give a damn what you (or arrowhen) recommend.
daffyduck said @ 7:50pm GMT on 6th Jan
I think we've finally heard from everyone, so let's do this again.

daffyduck
conception
shiftace
R1Xhard
ooo[......7 said @ 8:28pm GMT on 6th Jan
TEAM CHOSEN, PLEASE PM ME YOUR VOTES
ooo[......7 said @ 2:58am GMT on 2nd Jan
Everyone else, post here
conception said[1] @ 6:26am GMT on 2nd Jan [Score:1 Insightful]
Can we take a moment to appreciate the photoshop work on all the post images? Each day is carefully crafted. There's no copy/paste laziness going on here.
ooo[......7 said @ 7:08am GMT on 2nd Jan [Score:1 Balls Nasty ]
Aww.

Its stressful how long it takes sometimes, but I enjoy my work regardless.

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