When They Severed Earth from Sky -
How the Human Mind Shapes Myth
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Wednesday, 2 January 2019
quote [ Results are in. . . ]
I hope Merlin is ready, I doubt it.
 FAILURE Please, daffyduck, set up the final team of 4. Think carefully, and please let everyone weigh in a bit before you decide.
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endopol said @ 1:10am GMT on 6th January
Failed quests:
1. Conception, Rx, me
2. Conception, aw, shift
Possible teams of baddies:
{conception} x {daffy, *me, *Rx, *shift}
{Rx, me} x {aw, shift}
* Denotes a pairing that would require a lucky split.
Now, assuming that no baddie will attempt a lucky split unless they had to (e.g. it's the fourth quest and there is only one fail), and that all other motives are opaque (including voting--this gives them less credit than they are due, but otherwise I can't say anything about this) only {conception} x {aw, shift} might have tried to pull this off. In which case, there is a 0.5 chance of the current situation. Up to scale, the likelihood of each pair:
Conception, me: 0
Conception, daffy: 1
Conception, Rx: 0
Conception, shift: 0.5
Conception, Aw: 0.5
Me, daffy: 0
Me, Rx: 0
Me, shift: 1
Me, Aw: 1
Daffy, Rx: 0
Daffy, shift: 0
Daffy, aw: 0
Rx, shift: 1
Rx, aw: 1
Shift, aw: 0
Summing over all pairs gives marginal baddiehood likelihoods
Conception: 2
Daffy: 1
Me: 2
Rx: 2
Shift: 2.5
Aw: 2.5
(Up to scale)
I'd recommend leaving Aw and shift out of the last quest.
endopol said @ 1:15am GMT on 6th January
Failed quests:
1. Conception, Rx, me
2. Conception, aw, shift
Possible teams of baddies:
{conception} x {daffy, *me, *Rx, *shift}
{Rx, me} x {aw, shift}
* Denotes a pairing that would require a lucky split.
Now, assuming that no baddie will attempt a lucky split unless they had to (e.g. it's the fourth quest and there is only one fail), and that all other motives are opaque (including voting--this gives them less credit than they are due, but otherwise I can't say anything about this) only {conception} x {aw, shift} might have tried to pull this off. In which case, there is a 0.5 chance of the current situation. Up to scale, the likelihood of each pair:
Conception, me: 0
Conception, daffy: 1
Conception, Rx: 0
Conception, shift: 0.5
Conception, Aw: 0.5
Me, daffy: 0
Me, Rx: 0
Me, shift: 1
Me, Aw: 1
Daffy, Rx: 0
Daffy, shift: 0
Daffy, aw: 0
Rx, shift: 1
Rx, aw: 1
Shift, aw: 0
Summing over all pairs gives (naive) marginal baddiehood likelihoods
Conception: 2
Daffy: 1
Me: 2
Rx: 2
Shift: 2.5
Aw: 2.5
(Up to scale)
I'd recommend leaving Aw and shift out of the last quest.
<-- Entry / Current Comment
endopol said @ 1:10am GMT on 6th January
Failed quests:
1. Conception, Rx, me
2. Conception, aw, shift
Possible teams of baddies:
{conception} x {daffy, *me, *Rx, *shift}
{Rx, me} x {aw, shift}
* Denotes a pairing that would require a lucky split.
Now, assuming that no baddie will attempt a lucky split unless they had to (e.g. it's the fourth quest and there is only one fail), and that all other motives are opaque (including voting--this gives them less credit than they are due, but otherwise I can't say anything about this) only {conception} x {aw, shift} might have tried to pull this off. In which case, there is a 0.5 chance of the current situation. Up to scale, the likelihood of each pair:
Conception, me: 0
Conception, daffy: 1
Conception, Rx: 0
Conception, shift: 0.5
Conception, Aw: 0.5
Me, daffy: 0
Me, Rx: 0
Me, shift: 1
Me, Aw: 1
Daffy, Rx: 0
Daffy, shift: 0
Daffy, aw: 0
Rx, shift: 1
Rx, aw: 1
Shift, aw: 0
Summing over all pairs gives (naive) marginal baddiehood likelihoods
Conception: 2
Daffy: 1
Me: 2
Rx: 2
Shift: 2.5
Aw: 2.5
(Up to scale)
I'd recommend leaving Aw and shift out of the last quest.
