Sunday, 16 December 2018

SE AVALON Day 06

quote [ Votes are in. . . ]

I'll show you a hung Jerry.







daffyduck NAY
conceptionYEA
shiftace NAY
R1xhard NAY
endopol NAY
arrowhen YEA


So please R1Xhard, argue for a bit, give everyone a chance to post, and then after a pee, formulate a new team of 4 knights.
[SFW] [Mafia] [+1 Good]
[by ooo[......7@9:25amGMT]

Comments

ooo[......7 said @ 9:25am GMT on 16th Dec
R1Xhard please elect 4 knights for a quest
R1Xhard said @ 1:10am GMT on 17th Dec
For the quest how about:
Daffyduck
Shitface
R1xhard
Endopol
arrowhen said[1] @ 3:05am GMT on 17th Dec
If I'm right and rx1 and daffy are both baddies I'm almost tempted to vote Yea for this team just in the hope that you each vote Pass hoping the other will vote Fail. It would be a long shot, but still better odds than we'd have with just one baddie on the team and *probably* better odds than we'd have of putting together a team of innocents before we run out of tries.

I don't know, what does everyone else think?
daffyduck said @ 3:59am GMT on 17th Dec
Heh, already trying to shift the spotlight away from endopol. Nice try.
arrowhen said @ 5:59am GMT on 17th Dec
If endo and I were the baddies he would have voted Yea for the team I was nominated for.
daffyduck said @ 2:32pm GMT on 17th Dec
So the theories about baddies playing the long game only apply when neither of you is being accused. Gotcha.
arrowhen said @ 3:11pm GMT on 17th Dec
Even someone playing the long game isn't going to pass up an opportunity to get their fellow baddie on a team at minimal risk to themselves.
shiftace said @ 4:38pm GMT on 17th Dec
i think you and endo are the baddies.
ooo[......7 said @ 3:10am GMT on 17th Dec
How bout we let the others chime in first, eh?
R1Xhard said @ 3:42am GMT on 17th Dec
Okay, just postulating then.
ooo[......7 said @ 5:52am GMT on 17th Dec
There, endopol contributed.

Post your final team whenever.
R1Xhard said @ 11:16pm GMT on 17th Dec
For the quest I elect;
Daffyduck
Shitface
R1xhard
Endopol
ooo[......7 said @ 11:49pm GMT on 17th Dec
A TEAM HAS BEEN SELECTED, PLEASE PM ME EITHER "YEA" or "NAY"
ooo[......7 said @ 9:25am GMT on 16th Dec
Knights, discuss vile treachery here
R1Xhard said @ 1:26pm GMT on 16th Dec
Screw the piss I'm off to bed.

I'm thinking of going with the nay sayers, but I'll sleep on it and get back to you.
conception said @ 3:56pm GMT on 16th Dec
Quest 1 - 1 Nay Vote
Shift
Daffy
Passed

Quest 2 -
Team
Conception
R1Xhard
endopol

Votes
daffyduck NAY
conception YEA
shiftace NAY
R1xhard YEA
endopol YEA
arrowhen YEA

Results
2 PASS
1FAIL

Quest 3
Team
shiftace
conception
Rx1hard
arrowhen

Votes
daffyduck NAY
conceptionYEA
shiftace NAY
R1xhard NAY
endopol NAY
arrowhen YEA

So, most likely only one in my team is a traitor. Someone in Daffyace -probably- a traitor.


Outside of myself, for obvious reasons, AW seems the least likely to be evil.

Evil can't conspire so we'll probably get one or two fail votes. There's a chance one of evil would take the chance that the other will vote fail and vote pass but big risk for not a ton of gain probably? There isn't enough information still even with two fail votes for really saying much. They could both vote pass but again, that'd be evil making a mistake more than a strategy.

Also, there are two goodies, two baddies and two normies. So, more likely than not the people posting have a role. That's something I hadn't really considered yet.

Day 6 Updates -
So, Shift and R1 voted against their team.

And from yesterday -
Rx1hard - So your team would be Shift, Daffy, End and You? How did you come up with that?

arrowhen said @ 7:46pm GMT on 16th Dec
My theory is that this team had one baddie on it and each of the baddies had the same idea: that since there wasn't a lot of vocal opposition to the proposed team they could probably vote against it to draw suspicion away from themself and the vote would still pass. Unfortunately for them it seems there was more opposition than they counted on AND they both chose the same strategy.
daffyduck said @ 9:19pm GMT on 16th Dec
This was a lot easier, thanks to the fact that we had a new game start. That gave me the meta-info that my role changed, so mostly likely everyone had a role change. The meant the chances of shiftace, my partner in crime from the first game, being a baddie were 1/4 instead 2/5, the best odds of the rest of the group. After the quest passed, there was still that 25% chance of being wrong about him, but luckily arrowhen started talking that standard 'let's all be helpful, I'm a goody two-shoe'-bit that baddies like to talk. Next thing you know, he's voting 'nay' and pretty much claiming to be Merlin. When he started blaming me more than shift or R1X, I was sure he was not Merlin but a minion. Of the two minions, it made more sense for him the be Morgana; the way he talked, the way he voted. The next lucky break was the part were conception points out that endopol is being awfully quiet, and arrowhen is quickly jumping to endo's defence. Unless he (arrowhen) just did a brilliant bluff, endo is the other minion.

That is my reasoning for voting 'nay' on any team with arrowhen or endo in them. With the rest of us, I am confident we literally cannot fail a quest.
arrowhen said @ 2:26am GMT on 17th Dec
As far as I'm concerned you just completely outed yourself as a baddie.

"Let's all be helpful" is the only way the good guys win. It goes without saying that the baddies are going to want to look helpful too, but you said it anyway. The only reason I see for pointing out the obvious like this is to suppress discussion and make the next good guy think twice about voicing their opinion for fear of coming under suspicion. That only benefits the baddies.

Now, obviously that's not conclusive proof that you're a baddie. Maybe you're just being paranoid. You've been acting suspiciously all game, from going on the defensive right at the beginning and trying to divert suspicion away from yourself before anyone even had a reason to suspect you, to carefully avoiding any mention of your fellow baddie r1x, to suddenly ramping up your accusations against me to try and distract everyone from r1x's failed mission, but it's still possible that you had perfectly innocent reasons for all of your actions -- except for one.

There is simply NO good reason for any good guy to EVER speculate out loud about the identity of the Merlin. That doesn't help us in any way whatsoever, but even a bad guess COULD help the Assassin make the intuitive leap they need to win the game.
daffyduck said @ 3:50am GMT on 17th Dec
Oh but I'm not speculating about who Merlin is. Like you said yourself, that only helps the bad guys. So when you do that while talking to me, well, if that's not a hint to your buddy that I might be worth stabbing, I don't know what is. And that to me screams that I am right. My reasoning focused purely on who are the minions, and my reasoning says it's you and endo.
arrowhen said @ 5:41am GMT on 17th Dec
How is "I was sure he was not Merlin but a minion" anything BUT speculation about the identity of the Merlin? And when did I ever suggest ANYONE was the Merlin, let alone you? I've been focusing my reasoning on identifying the baddies just like you claim to be doing, and my reasoning leads me to believe it's you and r1x.

(It probably won't happen, but it'll be hilarious if you turn out to be a good guy too and we've been sniping at each other all week over nothing.)
endopol said @ 7:00am GMT on 17th Dec
It all comes down to how carefully you think [knife] randomized the roles. I wonder, anyone here the same role as last game?
daffyduck said @ 2:37pm GMT on 17th Dec
I thought about that, but the chances of it happening were pretty low so shiftace was my safest bet and the rest followed from there.

Also, after we're done with this game, I'd like to know who everyone was in the first one. I made my guesses early on and I'd like to see how I did.
conception said @ 3:26am GMT on 17th Dec
End - if this team falls who would you send?
endopol said @ 5:19am GMT on 17th Dec
Myself, shiftace, Conception, R1xhard. I'd like to split up the two who may have killed the last quest, and the skirmishing between daffy and arrowhen rubs me the wrong way.
conception said @ 2:30pm GMT on 17th Dec
I'm not sure I follow. All three of us in the last quest would be on that team.
conception said @ 4:04pm GMT on 17th Dec
For Team:
Daffyduck
Shitface
R1xhard
Endopol

I will vote nay since R1 or End is a baddie. I would urge you to also vote nay if that is the team.
conception said @ 4:14am GMT on 18th Dec
Best case scenario we get two fails from this. Which leaves is no information that's useful except Daffyace has a traitor in it and I'm not one.

I don't think that's enough to save us.

If we get one again could be any of the four.

If we get zero, then we lose since that'll paint me as the traitor and since I'm not then the rest of the group will get no information and Evil will probably get on a team and fail them.
Vote nay: Make Avalon Great Again
daffyduck said @ 4:45am GMT on 18th Dec
No way will there be two fails. Endo might fail this, but that's it. And yes, I did indeed vote 'nay' for the team.
arrowhen said @ 6:00am GMT on 18th Dec
I think you guys are talking about two different teams.
ooo[......7 said @ 9:25am GMT on 16th Dec
Everyone else, post here

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