But what I can tell you is your vote has never been more valuable than it is right now
or had bigger historical importance. There are big changes ahead for our government and our lives and don't be foolish enough not to have a say in what happens.

I am famous or should I say infamous for my last political political prediction ( Hillary by 5) so let me be the first to tell you don't believe anybody. This election can swing a long way and nobody knows what is going to happen. Almost all polls are based on likely voter models and that is the only thing we are certain of this year...it is not likely and there are no models.

The first variable.

Will this intensity continue through election day?

Second:

Are these new voters we are seeing or the same old voters just vote early

3rd:

And probably most important in terms of control of the Senate are Latino Voters.

The Betto / Cruz election is the high water mark for a blue tsunami.

The Beto factor: Why his appeal may translate to split ticket...

Beto has been a steady 5 points down...still is...per... likely voter model. That would put the Dems +5 on the LVM and would win them the Senate.

It would take a turnout by the Latino community in numbers unheard of in recent times.

Trump stokes false 'invasion' fears to the detriment of Americans

Which is why this is big news...maybe?


That would have to be accompanied by a bigger than usual turn out Millennials and GenXers as well.
Right now the LVM has both groups put together as still 5 points less the 65+...
When in reality there are twice as many people in the younger group...an almost 30 point advantage to the 65+ group

Millennials Now Rival Boomers As A Political Force, But Will They Actually Vote?

Now for the other end of that stick...what is the high water mark for the GOP...well it ain't no red wave, but it very well could be holding the House by 5 and gaining 4 seats in The Senate.

For Democrats, many possible paths to retaking the House in 2018

And all of that is in the margin of error.