Thursday, 1 November 2018

Who are these people and Why are there so damn many of them?

quote [ Early voting is blowing the doors off this midterm election, but it's unclear what that means for Tuesday



“Something special is going on right now,” said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist and leading expert on early voting. “The numbers we’re seeing are unprecedented.”

If the trend continues, he said, turnout could be the highest since 49% of eligible voters cast ballots in the 1966 midterm vote, and may even top 50%, a level of midterm voter participation that hasn’t been seen in more than a century, since the election of 1914. ]

I think it is too late to change anybody's vote.

But what I can tell you is your vote has never been more valuable than it is right now
or had bigger historical importance. There are big changes ahead for our government and our lives and don't be foolish enough not to have a say in what happens.

I am famous or should I say infamous for my last political political prediction ( Hillary by 5) so let me be the first to tell you don't believe anybody. This election can swing a long way and nobody knows what is going to happen. Almost all polls are based on likely voter models and that is the only thing we are certain of this year...it is not likely and there are no models.

The first variable.

Will this intensity continue through election day?

Second:

Are these new voters we are seeing or the same old voters just vote early

3rd:

And probably most important in terms of control of the Senate are Latino Voters.

The Betto / Cruz election is the high water mark for a blue tsunami.

The Beto factor: Why his appeal may translate to split ticket...

Beto has been a steady 5 points down...still is...per... likely voter model. That would put the Dems +5 on the LVM and would win them the Senate.

It would take a turnout by the Latino community in numbers unheard of in recent times.

Trump stokes false 'invasion' fears to the detriment of Americans

Which is why this is big news...maybe?


That would have to be accompanied by a bigger than usual turn out Millennials and GenXers as well.
Right now the LVM has both groups put together as still 5 points less the 65+...
When in reality there are twice as many people in the younger group...an almost 30 point advantage to the 65+ group

Millennials Now Rival Boomers As A Political Force, But Will They Actually Vote?

Now for the other end of that stick...what is the high water mark for the GOP...well it ain't no red wave, but it very well could be holding the House by 5 and gaining 4 seats in The Senate.

For Democrats, many possible paths to retaking the House in 2018

And all of that is in the margin of error.





[SFW] [politics] [+3]
[by bbqkink@3:36amGMT]

Comments

Centim64 said @ 4:28am GMT on 1st Nov [Score:2]
On another note the domain for SensibleElection is still available.
Hugh E. said @ 5:19am GMT on 1st Nov [Score:1 Funsightful]
This is simpler ...
scroll button
bbqkink said[1] @ 4:26am GMT on 1st Nov
Related:

Federal judges order Ohio to allow purged voters back in

A Report on the Dodge City voter suppression.

Dodge City.
Franger Sanger said @ 6:08am GMT on 1st Nov [Score:2 Funny]
bbqkink said @ 7:24am GMT on 1st Nov
Thanks didn't see it.
bbqkink said @ 9:59am GMT on 1st Nov
bbqkink said @ 4:47am GMT on 2nd Nov
rhesusmonkey said @ 4:00am GMT on 3rd Nov
As someone on the sidelines, i can only say i hope the turnout is great, and that Nov 7th i'll be taking shots for breakfast.

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