Friday, 13 March 2020

Why is the government relying on nudge theory to fight coronavirus?

quote [ With an estimated 5,000 to 10,000 coronavirus cases now present in the UK, the government has eschewed social distancing measures such as closing schools and banning large sporting events. Instead, it has opted for behavioural “nudges”: wash your hands, don’t touch your face, don’t shake hands with others, stay at home if you feel ill, and self-isolate if you have a continuous cough. ]

"Nudge nudge"

This is a tragedy. I suppose that at this point everyone's clear about the likely consequences of such a strategy.
[SFW] [health] [+2 Sad]
[by NuncEstBibendum@2:44pmGMT]


steele said @ 8:35pm GMT on 13th Mar [Score:2]
cb361 said @ 9:09pm GMT on 13th Mar [Score:1 Funny]
Dienes said @ 11:09pm GMT on 13th Mar [Score:1 Informative]
Nudge theory is based on risk and delay discounting theories from behavior economics. Basically, we've found that humans follow basic algorithmic laws in decision making, but not very logical actors. In other words, we're predictable and we're stupid. Seriously. You can plot it on a curve and accurately predict not only people's decisions, but things like divorce, GPA, relapse, etc. Even how much they like hip hop music.

The concept behind 'nudges' is to use this knowledge of how humans behavior to frame policies in a way that's actually effective. For example, opt-out policies for organ donation rather than opt-in. Most people don't have strong objections to organ donation, but opting in is something most perpetually postpone as its not all that important to their own life and takes effort to change. By putting the effort onto opting out, most people who are comfortable with organ donation donate, and those with strong feelings tend to opt out quickly.

Simply saying "Please wash your hands and cover your mouth" isn't actually in line with nudge theory. And Thaler has always advocated for these to be part of long-term social planning, not part of an acute response to a global emergency.
mechanical contrivance said @ 1:52pm GMT on 14th Mar
Sounds like psychohistory.
Paracetamol said @ 9:14am GMT on 17th Mar [Score:1 Funny]
The UK Only Realised "In The Last Few Days" That Its Coronavirus Strategy Would "Likely Result In Hundreds of Thousands of Deaths"

Scientists advising the government say an aggressive new approach adopted to attempt to "suppress" the virus may have to be in place for 18 months.

NuncEstBibendum said @ 1:13pm GMT on 17th Mar
Sorry for the mod (the general situation isn't funny at all), but this sudden awareness is actually rather funny.
Paracetamol said @ 1:35pm GMT on 17th Mar
Totally appropriate mod. We're staying inside till we figure out what to do with the sore throat and the headaches. It is kind of dense. Are you better? And how will they test you after the quarantine?
NuncEstBibendum said[4] @ 10:14pm GMT on 17th Mar [Score:1 Insightful]
I'm doing well, thanks.
Nowadays in northern Italy COVID-19 tests are gold.
If you have symptoms, you simply stay home, self-confined, for fourteen days: in the best scenario, you'll never know if you were positive or just a fucking hypochondriac.
The big problem is in my own city: every physician here will tell you that the real number of cases in Milan is a "grey" one; the official positives are the tip of the iceberg.
Given the incubation period, it's likely that in the next five/ten days we'll find ourselves in a critical situation. Here hospital workers don't test, in order to avoid the forced quarantine and keep on working. But masks and protections are in short supply, and it means more infections inside medical facilities.
Milan is a mid-sized city (1.400.000 citizens), but its metropolitan area is huge, for Italian standards (about 7.400.000 inhabitants).
The vibes these last days are gloomy. Silence, ambulances.
Paracetamol said @ 9:13am GMT on 18th Mar [Score:1 Good]
This is such a horrible situation for you, especially considering the dwindling resources.

Because there are no severe symptoms, doctor recommends self-isolation and no test. They were like “epidemiologically it would be interesting, but practically it doesn't change much – avert contact anyway”. Let's just watch the numbers.
NuncEstBibendum said[2] @ 10:34am GMT on 18th Mar
About the numbers, I would prefer not to.
In these hours Italy is outmatching China's overall number of COVID-19 victims (I regret old times, when we competed for the moral fatherhood of pasta); half of them are from my region.

In other words, I'm currently writing from the chief town of COVID-19 arsehole of the world.
cb361 said @ 11:59am GMT on 18th Mar [Score:1 Insightful]
Pasta was the first thing to disappear off the supermarket shelves here, but given the circumstances I was pretty sure it wasn't Italians coming over here to reclaim their ancestral spaghetti.
Paracetamol said @ 12:00pm GMT on 18th Mar [Score:1 Good]
Ha! Well, Ischgl has more headlines as super spreader already. Also, thanks for pressing us into isolation: Working from home since Friday, albeit with many exceptions for shopping and family.
NuncEstBibendum said @ 4:18pm GMT on 18th Mar [Score:1 laz0r]
You're welcome. It's always a pleasure to insufflate some good old apocalyptic fear into my dearest online community.
(very glad to hear that, really)
NuncEstBibendum said @ 6:31pm GMT on 19th Mar [Score:1 Sad]
Ok: Italy's deaths surpassed China's today.
The amount of Covid-19 positives here in Milan is soaring.

Non va proprio benissimo.
mechanical contrivance said @ 8:48pm GMT on 19th Mar
We don't actually know how many people died in China. We only know what the Chinese government tells the media.
NuncEstBibendum said @ 9:41pm GMT on 19th Mar [Score:1 Underrated]
You're right, in part; but sadly it's not just a matter of censorship. Even here in Italy the count is just hypothetical. A lot of people — elderly persons in particular — dies at home with no diagnosis, and doesn't increase the Covid-19 death toll.
steele said @ 10:31pm GMT on 17th Mar
I'm hearing from Scotland they're now recommending 4 month self-isolation for people over 70! That's really the first serious acknowledgement I've heard for how long this is likely to go on.
cb361 said @ 10:31am GMT on 18th Mar
I read that there will probably be a dip during the summer, but it'll likely ramp up again in the autumn.
cb361 said[1] @ 12:03pm GMT on 18th Mar [Score:1 Original]
My girlfriend sent me an email

Flowers are carefree
Pandemic has nothing to do with them
But human moods effect their growth

Not intended as a poem, but I thought it was a bit haiku-like.
mechanical contrivance said @ 4:21pm GMT on 13th Mar
Wink wink.
NuncEstBibendum said @ 4:25pm GMT on 13th Mar
mechanical contrivance said @ 4:45pm GMT on 13th Mar
Say no more.
cb361 said @ 8:31pm GMT on 13th Mar
Are you insinuating something?
steele said @ 5:42pm GMT on 13th Mar
Get in the guillotine. Nudge, nudge.
mechanical contrivance said @ 6:05pm GMT on 13th Mar
People dying is both the problem and the solution.
steele said @ 6:07pm GMT on 13th Mar [Score:1 Funny]
Turns out the answer was right in front of us all along!
steele said[2] @ 6:26pm GMT on 13th Mar [Score:2]
Case in point. Guillotine Bait.
Paracetamol said @ 6:58pm GMT on 13th Mar
+1 StupidCruel
steele said @ 7:13pm GMT on 13th Mar [Score:1 Insightful]
The cruelty is the point.
Paracetamol said @ 8:47pm GMT on 13th Mar
+1 Sadsightful
ScoobySnacks said @ 11:05pm GMT on 13th Mar
Hugh E. said @ 12:10am GMT on 14th Mar
I bristle at the term "herd immunity". Why not "group immunity"? Personally, I like "community immunity", but I realize it may sound silly to some. Anyway, stop with the dehumanizing "herd" thing. It's not effective.
rylex said @ 12:25am GMT on 14th Mar
because when so much of society can be classified as being part of the so called "bewildered herd"...
rylex said @ 12:23am GMT on 14th Mar
i've had a continuous cough for the last 20 years...
Bruceski said @ 6:25am GMT on 14th Mar [Score:1 Underrated]
Late damp winter leading into spring allergies is a phleghmy mess for me. I clear my throat and people JUMP.
daffyduck said @ 1:54pm GMT on 14th Mar

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