Friday, 14 December 2018

SE AVALON Day 05

quote [ Mission results are in. . . ]

Get ready. It's great. Remember to stretch.



The mission was a FAILURE!

Please, after a good amount of arguing, shiftace please choose a new group of 4 highly qualified knights loyal to the crown. Or not, its up to you. I don't choose shit, nobody asks me for nothin.
[SFW] [Mafia] [+1 Good]
[by ooo[......7@10:33amGMT]

Comments

ooo[......7 said @ 10:34am GMT on 14th Dec
shiftace please elect 4 knights for a quest
shiftace said @ 6:42am GMT on 15th Dec
I'm not going to sleep tonight until I pick a team.
shiftace
conception
Rx1hard
arrowhen
ooo[......7 said[1] @ 7:44am GMT on 15th Dec


A team has been chosen, send me your votes
R1Xhard said @ 5:21am GMT on 16th Dec
I'm voting nay, because I feel conception or arrowhen is going to fail us.
arrowhen said @ 6:06am GMT on 16th Dec
You claim you're voting Nay because you've already been on a failed team once and you think claiming to vote Nay twice is your best chance tp to get yourself on a team again so you van vote Fail again while still maintaining a semblance of innocence.

I'm voting Yea for this team even though you're going to vote Fail because it'll prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that you're evil and I think we can still pull this off adter that. and also ve cause i'm on vacation and and super drunk!
ooo[......7 said @ 10:34am GMT on 14th Dec
Knights, discuss vile treachery here
conception said @ 3:56pm GMT on 14th Dec [Score:1 Insightful]
Assuming R1 did "fuckin tolds us", and I'm not evil. That leaves end as evil. Sorry End.

So, AW had some waffling. Daffy and Shift passed mission 1 but that doesn't mean anything.

There hasn't been a lot of discussion outside of that so not much to go on.

So, I'm going to go with one of the two people in the first team was evil plus end.

So, Me, R1, Wen, and shift or daffy should go. If it fails, then shift or daffy are the traitors.
shiftace said @ 4:27pm GMT on 14th Dec [Score:1 Insightful]
lol. nice try. If it fails then you are more likely to be a traitor then anyone else. You just picked a failed group and now you are saying that if the next group you are in fails then it proves your innocence.
conception said @ 10:07pm GMT on 14th Dec
I mean, everyone that voted yea picked a failed group.

A failed group that I said, "Ok, don't run with this group then. Let's do something else!"

And obviously, I'm still a suspect, but I'm going off the logic that I'm innocent since... I am. :)
shiftace said @ 6:27am GMT on 15th Dec
Everyone says they are not the baddie. Even if you are not a baddie this still makes no sense to me. Your scenario only works if arrowhen is not a baddie. You put a traitor on your team so you are obviously not the Merlin. I don't see how pointing the finger at me or duck over R1xhard, arrowhen our yourself is helpful. I think I'm just going to have to get shitface drunk tomorrow and swing for the fences cus I got nothing. Maybe when endo gets on, he will have something to add.
endopol said @ 5:55am GMT on 15th Dec
Maybe I'm just slow at forming opinions, but all I've learned is that at least one of two people must be a baddie, shiftace and/or daffyduck. Everything else is just noise. Well-intentioned noise and malicious noise, and the latter is designed to sound like the former.
shiftace said @ 6:32am GMT on 15th Dec
duck and shiftace can't both be baddies. I'm not sure why this is hard to grasp.
R1Xhard said @ 3:32pm GMT on 14th Dec
I FUCKIN TOLDS YOU, but nah don't trust the shit talking stirring MotherFucker {I do prefer a nice MILF (the doors been open and well everyone might not be welcome but I am :P)}.

But yea fucking told ya.
conception said @ 3:39pm GMT on 14th Dec
So, I went back through the last couple posts and don't see that you told us anything.

What did you tell us?

I mean, you went on this mission.

Also, you're saying endopol is a traitor? Or myself I suppose, but that'd be folly.
R1Xhard said @ 3:46pm GMT on 14th Dec
Verbatim: Really mofo's, why what was there to suspect? Now we fucking flipped it to them, watch the fails inshoe.

by 'R1xhard'

Just after the tied votes in post 4.0.

But well the same people got choosen and well we failed, I know it wasn't me I'm not a Nah sayer.
conception said @ 3:51pm GMT on 14th Dec
Oh but that was when the team selection was a failure. That comment was under the assumption that team wasn't going out.

Or did you think ties defaulted to the yeas?
R1Xhard said @ 4:05pm GMT on 14th Dec
I had no clue what was going to happen until a re-vote was called, but felt the no-do-gooders were going to flip and fail us after deseesion was shown.

Shaggy said it best...

Shaggy - It Wasn't Me
shiftace said @ 4:55pm GMT on 14th Dec
Ill buy it. I have to pick 4 so it is not looking good. if you had to pick 4 instead of 3 who would you pick? my thoughts are Myself Duck You and Endo. Duck and I voted against the last team and were in the winning first group. so there is that for what ever it is worth. I'm not too thrilled about Endo. He Is way too quiet and it is hard to form an opinion one way or another.
daffyduck said @ 5:26pm GMT on 14th Dec
Hmm. Maybe leave endo out then? He is suspiciously quiet, now that you mention.

If I had to choose just 3, it would be myself, shift and probably conception. 4th one... I don't know. Maybe give R1xhard a chance?
arrowhen said[1] @ 7:24pm GMT on 14th Dec
Another possible interpretation would be as follows:

One of the baddies is r1x, the other is either shiftace or daffyduck. Let's call this baddie "daffyace".

"Daffyace" is playing the long game. He got put on the first team but voted pass to avoid outing himself too early. When his fellow baddie r1x was nominated for a team, he voted against that team -- knowing it would probably pass anyway -- to further establish his innocent persona.

"Daffyace" *definitely* wants to be on the first 4 man team, so he can vote no without blowing his cover. His preferred outcome would be either himself or r1x on the team but not both -- they'll both end up voting fail and that will make it harder to get either of them on the next team -- but both would be better than none.

That means the best play for "Daffyace" right now is a strong push to get themself on the team along with a soft push for r1x -- which is exactly what DaffyDUCK is doing right now.

Unless of course "Daffyace" is the one picking teams. At which point their best play is to keep r1x off the team, plant suspicion against someone else but get them on the team anyway so they can take the fall for "Daffyace's" fail vote -- which is exactly what SHIFTace is doing right now.

Admittedly that second scenario is a little more convoluted, so Occam's Razor suggests the second baddie is Daffyduck.
shiftace said @ 8:31pm GMT on 14th Dec
Shiftace is just asking questions and trying to get more information before sending in his team list.
R1Xhard said @ 9:44pm GMT on 14th Dec
Your assumptions seem suspect and misleading. Is that on purpose?
arrowhen said @ 10:39pm GMT on 14th Dec
I could say the same of yours. The difference is, I've tried to provide logical reasoning to support my theories while you've just tried to increase the general level of suspicion and mistrust among us. Which approach benefits the baddies more?
conception said @ 10:33pm GMT on 14th Dec
Looking at the votes for the entire game, theory one falls in line for me as well.

End's real quiet though so...
arrowhen said @ 10:47pm GMT on 14th Dec
I do agree that end has been quiet, and that's certainly something worth considering. But the way I see it, while silence *can* be suspicious, it can also just be a perfectly innocent case of people being busy IRL or whatever, while everything that people do say in-game has an in-game reason behind it. So I think suspicious speech is more suspicious than suspicious silence.
daffyduck said @ 3:59am GMT on 15th Dec
Any reason for claiming that shiftace or myself is a baddie? I'm trying to be objective on the matter, but I don't really get where this is coming from. I also notice that you were quickly defending endopol for being so quiet, which makes me think that the two of you are the minions, what with you still being my suspect numero uno.
arrowhen said @ 5:18am GMT on 15th Dec
I'm not really defending OR accusing anyone, I'm just trying to make educated guesses based on the scant facts we have available to us. I'm not saying that silence isn't suspicious -- I suspect EVERYONE at this point -- just that some people have said things that struck me as MORE suspicious rhan not saying anything at all.

Obviously I'm just groping around in the dark here. The only one who knows anything for sure is the Merlin, and if they've been dropping any hints at all, I've been too dumb to pick up on them.
daffyduck said @ 1:12pm GMT on 15th Dec
Looking at it just numbers-wise, you've pointed the finger at 3, defended 1, with 1 'neutral' (conception). So no, not trusting you OR endopol.
arrowhen said @ 4:22pm GMT on 15th Dec
There are only 6 players total. All I've done is narrow my list of potential suspects to the top 50%. I don't think that's an unreasonable approach; if we had, like, 20 players and I was talking about my top 10 suspects, that wouldn't raise any eyebrows at all. It's just that our tiny sample size makes everything seem more individually significant than it really is.

It's the same with the bottom 50% of the suspect pool. Obviously I don't suspect myself, so that only leaves two other people. Focusing my attention on the top half can seem like I'm trying to defend specific individuals when I'm really just trying to eliminate the least likely group of suspects.
daffyduck said @ 6:44pm GMT on 15th Dec
Saying that only Merlin knows stuff for sure is wrong, since the bad guys know each other. You're an old hand at these games, no need for the 'I'm too dumb'-act. I stand by my claim that you and endopol are the baddies, with you as Morgana and endo as the assassin, judging by your activity.
arrowhen said @ 8:12pm GMT on 15th Dec
We've only ever had one other game of Avalon on SE, so the bar for "old hands" is pretty damn low.

Obviously the Merlin isn't the only one who knows anything for sure, but the Merlin is the only GOOD GUY who knows anything for sure. What I'm saying is that my guesses are only guesses: I'm trying my best to come up with logical theories based upon the limited information we have available to us, but since I'm not the Merlin, I don't know anything for certain.

With regards to the Merlin, I'm not playing dumb, I'm just saying that *hopefully* everyone else on our team has figured out who they are and is picking up on their hints and voting accordingly, because personally I'm not getting anything from them, whoever they are.
arrowhen said @ 8:28pm GMT on 15th Dec
Also, what does Morgana activity even look like? They want to trick the Percival into thinking they're the Merlin, right? But shouldn't ALL the good guys want to trick the Assassin into thinking they're the Merlin? And since everyone else is doing it, shouldn't the Assassin do it too?

Basically everyone has motivation to appear talkative and helpful, so there's no real way of guessing someone's role based on that.
daffyduck said @ 9:21pm GMT on 15th Dec
Well basically this is just another version of mafia and I seem to remember that you used to take part in those.

While the rest of us struggle to come up with teams and what not, the assassin can just play a game of 'Stab the Merlin' and give fuck all about the quests and what his activity looks like. Hopefully all the good guys do provide enough noise that he actually has to make a 1/4 guess. Since Percival isn't an actual meat shield (e.g. he doesn't get to 'protect' anyone like some special mafia roles, at least I don't think he does), he's not that useful as a lone Merlin-impersonator.
arrowhen said @ 12:00am GMT on 16th Dec
Right, I played a couple Mafia games (although one of those was -_-'s mindfuck Paranoia game, so that doesn't really count) but I don't have a lot of experience with the special roles in Avalon.

Something to consider in this particular game is that with the small number of players there aren't any "regular" baddies, there's just the Assassin and the Morgana, which means that in addition to their special roles they're still going to be focusing on the normal bad guy job of trying to establish their trustworthiness and get added to teams. (I.e., the same thing we're all doing, good or bad.)

That being said, "giving fuck all about the quests and what his acttivity looks like" sounds a lot like what r1x has been doing all game.
conception said @ 7:51am GMT on 15th Dec
There was a nay vote on your group.
daffyduck said @ 4:06pm GMT on 15th Dec
Indeed there was, and that vote is telling me 'Hi, I'm arrowhen and my role is Morgana. Happy to confuse you."
conception said @ 5:14am GMT on 16th Dec
But that was before we had the rule to see who voted how. So, it's more likely that someone with some knowledge voted Nay.

With few clues, that's the main one for me that paints one of you as a baddie.

Honestly though, we made some mistakes in these first few days and as the game goes on, I'm remembering how to play more. I don't think we'll pull it off on purpose. Not enough information. But we might get lucky.
shiftace said @ 6:56am GMT on 15th Dec
so group is picked. It is the best one I can think of. Sorry to those that did not make the team unless you are baddies. Then I am not sorry at all. Go team conshifthardwhen!
conception said[1] @ 5:22am GMT on 16th Dec
Quest 1 - 1 Nay Vote
Shift
Daffy
Passed

Quest 2 -
Team
Conception
R1Xhard
endopol

Votes
daffyduck NAY
conception YEA
shiftace NAY
R1xhard YEA
endopol YEA
arrowhen YEA

Results
2 PASS
1FAIL

So, most likely only one in my team is a traitor. Someone in Daffyace -probably- a traitor.


Outside of myself, for obvious reasons, AW seems the least likely to be evil.

Evil can't conspire so we'll probably get one or two fail votes. There's a chance one of evil would take the chance that the other will vote fail and vote pass but big risk for not a ton of gain probably? There isn't enough information still even with two fail votes for really saying much. They could both vote pass but again, that'd be evil making a mistake more than a strategy.

Also, there are two goodies, two baddies and two normies. So, more likely than not the people posting have a role. That's something I hadn't really considered yet.

conception said @ 5:37am GMT on 16th Dec
Rx1hard - So your team would be Shift, Daffy, End and You? How did you come up with that?
ooo[......7 said @ 10:34am GMT on 14th Dec
Everyone else, post here
conception said @ 10:17pm GMT on 14th Dec [Score:1 Insightful]
We're not supposed to know how many fail votes there were right?
ooo[......7 said @ 10:35pm GMT on 14th Dec [Score:1 Informative]
Well, since you asked.

2 PASS
1FAIL

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