Wednesday, 7 November 2018

Democrats secure 218 seats in midterms to win control of House – as it happened

quote [ Democrats take back House and Republicans hold on to Senate as Trump lauds ‘tremendous success’ ]

State ballot measures:
-Florida voted to restore voting rights to people convicted of felonies.
-San Francisco voters passed a tax on big companies that would affect technology firms and fund housing and services for the homeless.
-Voters in Massachusetts became the first state to affirm transgender rights in a statewide vote.
-Legal marijuana continued to spread across the US.
-Nevada voted to exempt feminine hygiene products from state and local sales taxes.
-Four states voted on the expansion of Medicaid coverage to more low-income residents, a key aspect of the Affordable Care Act.

Here’s a summary of the big events of election day and the undecided races we are still closely watching.

In the House, Democrats secured the 218 seats needed to regain control.
Democrats won Republican-held seats in Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
In the Senate, Republicans have expanded their majority, and Trump declared the night a “tremendous success”.
Missouri Democratic senator Claire McCaskill lost to a Republican challenger.
A Republican also ousted senator Joe Donnelly, Indiana’s only Democratic statewide officeholder.
Texas Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, who became a Democratic superstar this election, narrowly lost in his race to unseat Ted Cruz.
Republican senator Dean Heller also lost his seat in Nevada to a Democratic challenger.
In the governor’s races, Democrats gained seven new seats.
Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, an influential Republican, lost his seat to a Democratic challenger.
Andrew Gillum, Democratic candidate for governor in Florida, lost to Republican Ron DeSantis.
The governor’s race in Georgia was too close to call, with Democrat Stacey Abrams saying she would not concede to Republican Brian Kemp, the state’s secretary of state. It could result in a runoff.
A record number of women won races across the country, and candidates of color and LGBT people have also broken barriers.
Voters passed ballot measures across the country with new laws on voting rights, marijuana, taxes and more.
Updated at 6.29am EST
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1h ago
Possible runoff in Georgia
Stacey Abrams’ campaign has sent out an update about the possibility of a runoff in the Georgia governor’s race, where she is trailing behind Republican Brian Kemp, but tens of thousands of votes have yet to be counted. Some key facts from the Democratic candidate:

As of 4am local time, there was a difference of 85,167 votes separating Kemp and Abrams, which represents just over 2% of votes cast.
To trigger a runoff, the Abrams campaign needs to net 24,379 votes out of the tens of thousands of potential ballots that remain outstanding.
Three of the four largest counties in the state – DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Cobb – have reported only a portion of the votes that were submitted by early mail. In Cobb, anywhere between 25,000 and 26,000 votes were submitted early by mail.
Four other large counties – Chatham, Henry, Douglas, and Clarke – have reported zero votes by mail.
Together, those seven counties are expected to return a minimum of 77,000 ballots. These counties also represent heavily-Democratic leaning constituencies.
Earlier in the night, Kemp said the “math is on our side to win”
[SFW] [politics] [+7 Good]
[by lilmookieesquire@12:22pmGMT]


Spyike said[1] @ 6:41pm GMT on 7th Nov [Score:2 Underrated]
Unresearched hot take: Democrats taking the house genuinely is good for Trump in the long term. He excels in theatrical antagonism, and now has the traditional "other party" to punchbag and scapegoat with for two years before his re-election campaign. The Democrats "having" the house of representatives doesn't seem like that big of a deal when the Republicans "have" the senate, presidency, and arguably supreme court.
steele said[1] @ 6:52pm GMT on 7th Nov
What would give you that idea? ;)
the circus said @ 7:30pm GMT on 7th Nov
The Tories never integrated. They just bided their time and spread across the south, religious culture, and the Republican Party.
steele said @ 1:17pm GMT on 7th Nov [Score:1 Underrated]
So seeing as how Florida is fucked both in the short term and long, I wonder if it would be more prudent to spend resources helping relocate Florida progressives into flippable districts around the US rather than trying to fight for the narrow window in which progressives might be able to make a difference just before Climate Change fucks it all back to hell.
Dienes said @ 5:23pm GMT on 7th Nov [Score:1 Funsightful]
I still can't believe that Florida had the option of Bill Nelson, a veteran and fucking astronaut, and Voldemort, and doubled down on fucking Voldemort.

Check that, I'm not surprised at all.
steele said @ 6:01pm GMT on 7th Nov
Nor am I. I mean, I was hopeful, and I knew it was going to be close, but I've spent time in the non-metropolitan areas of Florida. I've watched parades of pickups with confederate battle flags go waving by my campgrounds. I've got no illusions as to how things are out there. Not to get your hopes up, but apparently it may still come in close enough to trigger a recount. We'll see.

What gets me though is, what the fuck was going with the amendments? It took two tries to get medicinal marijuana the 60% it needed to get passed. Last night it was like a smorgasbord of watching amendments break that barrier. And what the fuck, why did these people vote for 2 and 5, but not 1? What the fuck was going on in people's heads? It's great that 4 passed, but the state is now fucked financially.
Dienes said @ 8:39pm GMT on 7th Nov
Amendments 2 and 5 are easier for folks to understand in a TAX BAD kinda way. Maybe they were afraid of the Blue Wave and thought that maybe this way even if Dems got in, they couldn't do as much. /shrug The ways of Florida are inscrutable.

I am happy to see 4 and 13 pass. Of all the fucking things in the election, the one thing that drove a wedge in my family was Amendment 13 to end dog racing for gambling purposes. My mom, bless her heart, is a rational, science-based person....unless dogs are somehow in the equation. She's convinced that Amendment 13 is a conspiracy by the Humane Society to ban all dog-related activities (e.g., rally, agility, barn hunt, flyball), and is just the first step to banning dog breeding and dog ownership entirely for the entire country. Thanksgiving is going to be fun.
steele said @ 8:46pm GMT on 7th Nov
I mean that's the problem. Going forward, Amendment 5 is going to seriously hamstring Florida financially. That's a state killer right there. We might as well just pass a balanced budget act and watch the government come screeching to a halt. I'd bet that's on the ballot for 2020.

That... is kind of a weird stance for your mom to take... Good luck? :)
Dienes said @ 9:23pm GMT on 7th Nov [Score:1 Funsightful]
Totally agreed - the TAX BAD approach means we can only adjust taxes in one direction and if we run out of funds we're fucked. There's absolutely no reason to put that kind of limitation in the state constitution - unless you're incredibly short-sighted and just want to fuck over whoever comes after you. Which, considering the whole "Climate change is inevitable" thing, maybe they think Florida will be gone by the time it is an issue. I don't know if that is optimistic or pessimistic.

Yeeeeah, I got nothin'. She's a Dean Koontz on the loves-dogs scale, but opposes any form of regulation for dog wellbeing.
steele said @ 11:40pm GMT on 7th Nov
Dean Koontz level. Got it. That's all you gotta say. ;)
steele said @ 7:24pm GMT on 8th Nov
We're in recount territory!
lilmookieesquire said @ 3:51pm GMT on 7th Nov
Sure. I just need you guys to reverse the flood pumps before you leave.
steele said @ 4:54pm GMT on 7th Nov
There's not going to be a budget to run them anyway.
hellboy said @ 11:19pm GMT on 7th Nov
Frankly, Florida deserves to be underwater. A few of you are worth saving though.
ComposerNate said @ 12:32pm GMT on 7th Nov
Any sniff yet of ballot tampering/hacking, beyond known voter suppression and general deception?
lilmookieesquire said @ 12:37pm GMT on 7th Nov [Score:1 Sad]
Hugh E. said @ 12:53pm GMT on 7th Nov
lilmookieesquire said @ 4:16pm GMT on 7th Nov
Is it not true? /IDKI:S
0000 said[1] @ 4:58pm GMT on 10th Nov

Judge orders Broward elections chief to turn over vote counts to Scott’s campaign
the circus said @ 1:03pm GMT on 7th Nov
It was good news for Wisconsin, but no blue wave. But Walker saw the writing on the wall and campaigned heavily to poison the well. It was non stop ads about how Tony Evers was going to raise taxes. Well the 4.5 billion to give to Foxconn isn't going to come out of the air…
bbqkink said @ 12:24am GMT on 9th Nov
bbqkink said @ 12:32am GMT on 9th Nov
bbqkink said @ 3:49am GMT on 9th Nov
bbqkink said @ 1:06am GMT on 9th Nov
Arizona GOP sues to limit mail-in ballots in McSally-Sinema race

The lawsuit alleges that signature verification must stop when polls close, and seeks an injunction to stop the counting of such ballots that have been verified after then. It's unclear how many of these votes still remain outstanding, but the suit singles out the state's two biggest urban counties, the center of support for Sinema. It says the two counties allow voters to help clear up signature problems up to five days after the election.

Create a problem with a law that is discriminatory then complain it is taking too long to straighten it out.
bbqkink said @ 2:04am GMT on 9th Nov
bbqkink said[1] @ 3:19am GMT on 9th Nov
Blue Wave confirmed

Dems flip +30 seats and still counting with more seats likely.

And I think it is time to notice that the pollster who had it right.

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Dems will pick up more than 30 House seats, GOP set to keep Senate

This is larger than the T-Party wave.
bbqkink said @ 6:02am GMT on 9th Nov
Hey don't look now but Florida might just flip....there is no better sign you are winning than the Republicans all saying you are cheating.

Rick Scott Claims Fraud, Seeks Florida Law Enforcement Probe Of Election Officials
The Republican governor is facing a likely recount as his lead in a U.S. Senate race against incumbent Bill Nelson shrinks.
bbqkink said @ 9:40am GMT on 9th Nov
Something Very Odd Happened With Broward County’s Ballots in the Florida Senate Election

One reason for hope for Nelson is that a traditionally Democratic area, Broward County, has so far reported fewer votes for the Senate race compared with the gubernatorial race, according to data compiled by MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki. In other Florida counties, no such discrepancy exists. While some of the discrepancy could be due to genuine undervotes—for instance, the design of the ballot may have led some voters to miss it and not vote in that race—it’s possible that the county hasn’t correctly counted all the ballots. About 24,000 ballots in Broward County registered a vote in the governor’s race but not for the Senate race.

The discrepancy with the Senate race tally is consistent down the ballot, with more votes cast in lower-profile races like commissioner of agriculture, chief financial officer, and attorney general than in the Senate race, according to the preliminary county results. As of Thursday afternoon, a total of 675,216 votes had been counted in the Senate race in Broward (466,321 for Nelson and 208,895 for Scott). By comparison, the gubernatorial race had 701,080 cast in Broward, and even the commissioner of agriculture race had 685,440 total votes while the chief financial officer race had 685,017 votes.

Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias told the Sun Sentinel that he thinks the undervotes were due to voting machines not detecting genuine votes. “I am pretty confident what you are going to see are markings that were not picked up by the machines or a calibration issue that was not registering that part of the ballot,” he said.

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