Wednesday, 11 July 2018

It is getting close enough to take a look at the numbers

quote [ The next big test for the parties will be the August 7 special election in Ohio's 12th CD, where GOP state Sen. Troy Balderson is facing off against Democratic Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor in the northern Columbus suburbs. Overall, our November outlook is a Democratic gain of between 20 and 35 seats (again, Democrats need 23 for a majority). ]

I am still seeing the aprx. + 10 Dem advantage that has been evident in all of the special elections...the Aug. 7th race will be another test of that. Bottom line is that the House looks very doable, the Senate...a lot harder.

Before anybody gets too excited that the Dems are a shoe in I think it is time to remind everyone how we got here.


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In the 2014 midterm elections only 37% of Americans voted. We now have a reactionary Congress in slavish support of wealthy campaign contributors, making devastating attacks against working families.

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This is a midterm election Democrats especially young Democrats suck at voting in the midterms...don't count your chickens with this much history staring you in the face.

This is turning very interesting in the Senate.

Ted Cruz leads Beto O’Rourke by 5 points in Texas Senate race, UT/TT poll finds

And if the +10 keeps holding for the Dems Cruz loses.

See how your locals races are shaping up.


New polls show Democrats have a narrow path to a Senate majority
What the latest Senate polls tell us about the state of the 2018 midterm elections.


And of coarse the shenanigans have started.

Ahead of key Senate race, the Green Party loses its spot on the ballot

“It is clear that an out-of-state political firm with ties to the Republican Party and a history of misleading voters was hired to electioneer in Montana,” Montana Democratic Party Executive Director Nancy Keenan said in March. “However, the names of who bankrolled this extensive effort are being hidden from the people of Montana. Montanans demand truth in our elections, and we deserve to know if out-of-state dark money is trying to influence our democracy.”

As best as I can tell, this hasn’t been fully resolved, but it makes me wonder about efforts on the right to boost the Green Party this election cycle.


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[by bbqkink@3:46pmGMT]

Comments

LurkerAtTheGate said @ 7:00pm GMT on 11th Jul
"TN (GOP-INC) Bredesen (D) +4.4 (6/4)"

This makes me happy. Early Voting here friday, and I've been pushing people to go in, even for no reason other than Fuck Blackburn. People here hate her as she actively fought our awesome muni fiber.
jbhalper said @ 4:20pm GMT on 12th Jul
Yep. Bredesen seems fine for my personal tastes, and probably the best we can hope for in TN. Excited to get out this weekend and cast an early ballot. We've got good local candidates running too, so it's not a 100% fuck Blackburn vote even.
LurkerAtTheGate said @ 12:52am GMT on 13th Jul
I can't believe Basil Marceaux got on the gubernatorial ballot, 19 local arrests and he was found Not Guilty by Insanity on 7 of 'em. Better him than Diane Black, though.
jbhalper said @ 7:39pm GMT on 13th Jul
At least Marceaux's financially responsible enough to save and re-use his signs from previously failed bids.
Ussmak said @ 8:03pm GMT on 11th Jul
Did the last election teach you nothing about listening to pollsters?
bbqkink said @ 8:39pm GMT on 11th Jul
Hillary by 5...I remember.
norok said[1] @ 12:52pm GMT on 12th Jul [Score:-1 Boring]
filtered comment under your threshold
bbqkink said @ 5:26pm GMT on 12th Jul
the most extreme Progressives

Haha. Not even close, as a mater of fact you are wrong about the direction. The DNC and DCCC are controlled by the 3rd way and funnel all money toward 3rd way candidates and away from progressive challengers.

In Ga like always the money was funneled into the suburbs looking for the mythical cross over voter. Not aimed at progressives at all. And in New York, Cortez did not win with the help of the party but in spite of the obstacle they presented.

What you are describing is the view from the fever swamp, and is not reality.
norok said @ 8:29pm GMT on 12th Jul
You may be right in your assessment. I've been keeping an eye on the Ortez race and she apparently thinks that Crowley is going to mount a 3rd party challenge. I find that all very confusing... why the Democrats even allowed a de-facto third party like the DSA to run in their primaries to begin with.
bbqkink said @ 8:44pm GMT on 12th Jul
Because just like the Republicans there are two distinct wings vying for power. Anybody who gets a clipboard who gets the signatures can run in either party. (see Chicago Nazi).
Fish said @ 2:46am GMT on 12th Jul [Score:-3]
filtered comment under your threshold
Fish said[1] @ 3:14am GMT on 12th Jul [Score:-3]
filtered comment under your threshold

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