You Are Not So Smart -
Why You Have Too Many Friends on Facebook, Why Your Memory Is Mostly Fiction, and 46 Other Ways You're Deluding Yourself
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Wednesday, 11 January 2017
quote [ TAIPEI —
Taiwan scrambled jets and navy ships on Wednesday as a group of Chinese warships led by China's sole aircraft carrier sailed north through the Taiwan Strait,the latest sign of heightened tensions between Beijing and the self-ruled Taiwan. The Soviet-built Liaoning aircraft carrier, returning from exercises in the South China Sea, was not trespassing in Taiwan's territorial waters but entered its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the southwest, Taiwan's defense ministry said. As a result Taiwan scrambled jets and navy ships to “surveil and control” the passage of the Chinese ships through the narrow body of water separating Taiwan and China. ] Please, please, don't be a diversion from Pissgate.
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lilmookieesquire said @ 12:14pm GMT on 12th January
China would have a lot to lose if it invades. China tends to think in a more multi-generational level (usually).
Frankly China using military power to invade opens a whole other can of worms and china has a LOT more to lose via military invasion than gain.
The military build up is probably compatible to the Japanese meiji era and is more useful for negotiations and not being pushed around (and intimidating/enveloping smaller countries) and doing things like securing fishing and oil resources by playing the "this mound of rocks is chinese so we get everything within 100 miles of this zone".
Ultimately it probably has more to do with keeping fuel and seafood prices low than it is about invading Taiwan- but there are probably elements in China that want to do that, so probably can't rule it out entirely- but it would give Japan an wonderful excuse to "re-militarize" and probably push S.Korea/Japan/others into a weird alliance instead of playing them off each other.
My Chinese friends make an okay point- China is really too busy trying to keep itself from falling apart to really be doing any invading. In that light, starting a war of any kind would be disastrous because if China was invaded, there would probably be a ton of breakaway providences, and they aren't going to risk that for a short term taiwan grab when they can likely co-opt taiwan economically and culturally in the long term (I forgot which political party in taiwan is the chinese friendly one, green or blue. Are those the colors?)
But I imagine there's great value in testing Trump's reaction and American policy during a transitional phase.
lilmookieesquire said @ 12:21pm GMT on 12th January
China would have a lot to lose if it invades. China tends to think in a more multi-generational level (usually).
Frankly China using military power to invade opens a whole other can of worms and china has a LOT more to lose via military invasion than gain.
The military build up is probably compatible to the Japanese meiji era and is more useful for negotiations and not being pushed around (and intimidating/enveloping smaller countries) and doing things like securing fishing and oil resources by playing the "this mound of rocks is chinese so we get everything within 100 miles of this zone".
Ultimately it probably has more to do with keeping fuel and seafood prices low than it is about invading Taiwan- but there are probably elements in China that want to do that, so probably can't rule it out entirely- but it would give Japan an wonderful excuse to "re-militarize" and probably push S.Korea/Japan/others into a weird alliance instead of playing them off each other.
My Chinese friends make an okay point- China is really too busy trying to keep itself from falling apart to really be doing any invading. In that light, starting a war of any kind would be disastrous because if China was invaded, there would probably be a ton of breakaway providences, and they aren't going to risk that for a short term taiwan grab when they can likely co-opt taiwan economically and culturally in the long term (I forgot which political party in taiwan is the chinese friendly one, green or blue. Are those the colors?)
But I imagine there's great value in testing Trump's reaction and American policy during a transitional phase.
edit: And if you want to play fast-and-loose... the issue with taiwan is that it has a semi-legit claim of governorship over china ("we were the original pre wwII government of china") and if taiwan was invaded, other governments could probably use that invasion as a green light to invade china and use the taiwanese govenment as a kind of puppet government to split china. Given that China saw what happened to the USSR, I'm pretty sure China isn't too keen on offensive military action when they could probablt successfully assimilate taiwan in the future via economics, long term trade, and politics.
<-- Entry / Current Comment
lilmookieesquire said @ 12:14pm GMT on 12th January
China would have a lot to lose if it invades. China tends to think in a more multi-generational level (usually).
Frankly China using military power to invade opens a whole other can of worms and china has a LOT more to lose via military invasion than gain.
The military build up is probably compatible to the Japanese meiji era and is more useful for negotiations and not being pushed around (and intimidating/enveloping smaller countries) and doing things like securing fishing and oil resources by playing the "this mound of rocks is chinese so we get everything within 100 miles of this zone".
Ultimately it probably has more to do with keeping fuel and seafood prices low than it is about invading Taiwan- but there are probably elements in China that want to do that, so probably can't rule it out entirely- but it would give Japan an wonderful excuse to "re-militarize" and probably push S.Korea/Japan/others into a weird alliance instead of playing them off each other.
My Chinese friends make an okay point- China is really too busy trying to keep itself from falling apart to really be doing any invading. In that light, starting a war of any kind would be disastrous because if China was invaded, there would probably be a ton of breakaway providences, and they aren't going to risk that for a short term taiwan grab when they can likely co-opt taiwan economically and culturally in the long term (I forgot which political party in taiwan is the chinese friendly one, green or blue. Are those the colors?)
But I imagine there's great value in testing Trump's reaction and American policy during a transitional phase.
edit: And if you want to play fast-and-loose... the issue with taiwan is that it has a semi-legit claim of governorship over china ("we were the original pre wwII government of china") and if taiwan was invaded, other governments could probably use that invasion as a green light to invade china and use the taiwanese govenment as a kind of puppet government to split china. Given that China saw what happened to the USSR, I'm pretty sure China isn't too keen on offensive military action when they could probablt successfully assimilate taiwan in the future via economics, long term trade, and politics.
